Richard G. Lathrop
Tenley M. Conway
As part of the Barnegat Bay National Estuary Program's management plan, the Center for Remote Sensing and Spatial Analysis (CRSSA) has completed a build-out analysis of the watershed. A build-out analysis creates a model of the watershed when all land available for development is developed at the highest intensities possible. This type of analysis is useful in long-term planning efforts as a way to understand the potential impacts of future growth.
This project was
funded by the US Environmental Protection Agency through
the Barnegat Bay Estuary Program, 2000-2001.
Overview
In this study, we use the number of dwelling units, population, and percent of impervious surface cover as ways to quantify the amount of development possible at build-out. The number of dwelling units and population are indicators of residential water demand, while impervious surface is an indicator of non-point source pollution. By understanding the potential changes of these indicators, we can better identify actions needed to protect the resources in Barnegat Bay.
The build-out model estimates that the number of dwelling units and population could increase 30 to 34 percent in the baseline scenario. An additional four percent of theland area, up from eight percent,in the watershed is predicted to be covered by impervious surface at build-out; this represents an increase in impervious surface cover of 50 percent. Approximately 50 percent of the catchments will have more than 10 percent impervious surface cover, suggesting that water quality will be impacted.
Although the exact amount of additional development may vary based on the amount of land protected as open space, zoning and other regulations, and socioeconomic factors, the build-out analysis indicates that significant additional development will occur in the watershed. This build-out analysis reinforces the idea that comprehensive watershed scale planning is needed to address future development impacts. The Barnegat Bay's Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan identifies a number of actions that new and existing residents can adopt to help protect the water quality and supply.
More Information
- The final technical report, written by CRSSA and completed May 2001, is now available in Adobe PDF format. Please be aware the approximate file size is 368K.
- CRSSA findings regarding the Barnegat Bay watershed build-out analysis have been presented to various local government groups. This slide-show presentation may be viewed by clicking here.
Links
Contacts @ CRSSA
Rick Lathrop, CRSSA
Director, lathrop@crssa.rutgers.edu
Tenley Conway, conway@crssa.rutgers.edu
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Grant
F. Walton Center for Remote Sensing and Spatial Analysis (CRSSA) |
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Site last updated 09 August 2001 |